Short Term Commodity Outlook in September 2025: Aluminum and Zinc

The metal industry market is constantly in motion – and so are commodity prices. IKB Deutsche Industriebank regularly publishes a report focusing on aluminum and zinc inventories and prices. The latest developments are highlighted in the current September 2025 report.

Written by Sina Lutter & André Edinger

Aluminium developments and forecasts

By the end of July 2025, global primary aluminium production was 1.3 percent above the level of the same period last year. We expect moderate growth in primary production globally over the next few years, rising to 78 million tons by 2027. On the demand side, the trend towards lightweight construction and e-mobility continues to provide impetus.

Aluminium stocks showed a relatively uniform development overall in August 2025 on the SHFE and LME. On the SHFE, warehouse stocks rose by 8.5 percent on average over the month, while on the LME they increased by 6.7 percent over the same period.

The average price of primary aluminium in August 2025 was 2.8 percent higher than in the previous month, following a 6.4 percent increase in July. US trade policy had a significant impact on the markets: President Trump initially imposed import tariffs of 25 percent, which were raised to 50 percent at the beginning of June. In August, the duties were extended to more than 400 aluminium and steel products. In this context, it is striking that imports of US aluminium scrap, which is subject to a duty of only 15 percent, have increased in recent months.

Trend: We anticipate a fluctuation of approximately 300 US dollars around the value of 2,500 US dollars per ton for the primary aluminium price until the end of the third quarter of 2025. The alloy price will stabilise at a similar level.

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Zinc developments and forecasts

Global zinc mine production in the first half of 2025 was a good 6 percent higher than in the same period last year. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), output increases at the Kipushi mine, which was newly commissioned in 2024, were decisive.

In contrast to mine production, refined production declined by 2.3 percent in the first six months as a result of lower production levels in Brazil, Kazakhstan and Japan, where production facilities were closed. These declines could not be offset by production increases in Peru and Europe. Zinc consumption rose only slightly, by just under 1 percent.

The trend of declining zinc stocks on the LME continued in recent months: at the beginning of August, zinc stocks fell below the 100,000-ton mark and were even below 60,000 tons at the end of the month. This means that current stocks are only a quarter of what they were last year. In contrast, zinc stocks on the SHFE rose last month, with stocks increasing by a good 20,000 tons over the course of the month.

Despite the sharp decline in LME zinc stocks, there was little impact on market prices. This suggests that the market expects a supply surplus and a stable supply chain.

Trend: We expect the zinc price to hover around 2,800 US dollars per ton by the end of 2025, with a range of plus or minus 500 US dollars.