Short Term Commodity Outlook in December 2025: Aluminum and Zinc

The metal industry market is constantly in motion – and so are commodity prices. IKB Deutsche Industriebank regularly publishes a report focusing on aluminum and zinc inventories and prices. The latest developments are highlighted in the current December 2025 report.

Written by Sina Lutter & André Edinger

Line chart of aluminum inventories at LME and SHFE from 2019 to 2025.

Aluminium developments and forecasts

Global primary aluminium production rose by 1.2 per cent in the first ten months of 2025 compared with the same period the year before, reaching 61.4 million tonnes. China’s 2 per cent increase in output was the main driver. Another year of production growth and a new record level are expected globally.

Aluminium stocks on the exchanges showed little movement in November 2025. At the end of the month, the LME held 539,050 tonnes of aluminium. SHFE inventories increased by 1.5 per cent in November to 115,277 tonnes, although this represents a 49.4 per cent decline compared with the previous year.

The primary aluminium price was 1.5 per cent lower at the end of November than at the beginning of the month, with a maximum price spread of 153.65 US-dollars. Since April, recycled aluminium prices have moved sideways at 2,509 US-dollars per tonne, bringing them back below the primary aluminium price. In October, the LME published a discussion paper on introducing a premium for sustainable metals, applicable to aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc and lead.

Trend: By the end of Q1 2026, the primary aluminium price is expected to be around 2,850 US-dollars per tonne, within a range of plus 500 US-dollars. Alloy prices are projected to be 300 US-dollars per tonne below that level.

Line chart showing primary aluminum and aluminum alloy prices from 2019 to 2025.

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Line chart showing global zinc inventories from 2019 to 2025.

Zinc developments and forecasts

After two years of declines, global zinc mine production is forecast to rise by more than 4 per cent in 2025, supported by steady output outside China. Refined production is set to increase by 2.7 per cent, driven primarily by Chinese growth of 6.2 per cent. Global zinc consumption is forecast to grow by 1.1 per cent.

LME inventories continued to fall sharply, dipping to 34,000 tonnes in early November before recovering slightly to 50,000 tonnes at month-end – an 80 per cent year-on-year reduction. SHFE stocks also declined and remained below 100,000 tonnes. Despite low inventories, the market is expected to finish the year with an oversupply.

Trend: By the end of Q1 2026, we foresee zinc trading around 3,100 US-dollars per tonne, within a range of plus 500 US-dollars.