At first glance, the business climate index of German suppliers shows a clear improvement: seasonally adjusted, it jumps from minus 5.2 points to plus 0.7 points. However, the improvement is merely based on a correction of last year's plummeting expectations from March to September, according to the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Zulieferindustrie ArGeZ. In view of the turbulence on the energy and raw materials markets, this is not surprising.
Tension and cautious optimism among suppliers
Looking at the current assessment of the business outlook on a six-month horizon, this is an improvement of almost twelve points compared to the previous month. Nevertheless, according to the consortium, the suppliers' expectations still contain a slight potential for recession. In addition, there is the current situation. Since summer 2022, the actually positive level of the situation assessment has almost halved (plus 16.2 points).