By the end of April 2023, global primary aluminium production was two per cent higher than in the same period last year. For the year as a whole, we expect primary aluminium production to be around 68.6 million tonnes and thus only slightly above the previous year's level.
The background to this is the weak demand associated with the economic slowdown. The recovery in China was also slower, with production in the first four months 3.3 per cent above the previous year. The 9.7 per cent decline in Western Europe reflects the continuing high energy costs.
The price trend for zinc continued to decline in May 2023. Weak demand, especially from the construction and automotive sectors, meets an increase in zinc mine production, which is estimated at three percent for 2023. In the previous year, the decline was 2.5 per cent.
For China, growth of 1.5 per cent is expected for 2023 after the decline in the previous year. An increase of 3.3 per cent is also seen forrefinery production. China is expected to achieve the largest growth of four per cent, but a slight recovery is also expected for Europe.
However, the increase in China could be significantly lower due to electricity rationing. As zinc consumption is also expected to increase after the decline in the previous year, a supply deficit is also expected for 2023.
The demand trends from the renewable energy, automotive and construction sectors generally ensure rising demand. Stocks on the LME rose by almost two-thirds in the course of May 2023 and were slightly above the previous year's level again at the end of the month after the lows reached in January 2023.
On the SHFE, on the other hand, zinc stocks fell by 9 per cent to just over 19 400 tonnes and were thus around 26 per cent below the previous year's value. On the COMEX, only 3 000 tonnes are still in stock.
Trend: We see the zinc price at 2 500 US dollars per tonne in a range of plus/minus 500 US dollars by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
