The seasonally adjusted assessment of the current business situation rose by 1.1 points to minus 0.9 in September 2026. This represents the indicator’s highest level since July 2023. It is thus moving closer to the zero mark, which indicates a balance between positive and negative assessments of the current business situation.
Business expectations, however, developed differently. The corresponding indicator fell by 1.7 points compared with August to 1.7. Although it remained in positive territory for the second consecutive month, the positive balance of expectations narrowed. Assessments of the current business situation and the outlook for the next six months are therefore moving in different directions.
ifo Business Climate Index also rises
The ArGeZ results coincide with an improvement in the overall business climate in Germany. According to the ifo Institute, the Business Climate Index rose to 89.9 points in September 2026, up from 88.8 points in August. Both assessments of the current business situation and expectations improved among the companies surveyed.
Developments in manufacturing were mixed. Here, the increase in the Business Climate Index was mainly driven by more positive expectations. Companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favourably than in the previous month. They also continued to express dissatisfaction with their order backlogs.
The ifo Institute continues to describe conditions in the automotive industry, an important market for the die casting sector, as difficult. In its September survey, the institute noted that the automotive industry remained on challenging ground.
Economic research institutes raise growth forecast
At the same time, Germany’s leading economic research institutes have raised their economic forecast for 2026. In their September Joint Economic Forecast, they now expect price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.3 per cent. In spring, they had forecast growth of just 0.6 per cent.
The institutes attribute the upward revision primarily to developments in the first half of 2026. Exports and value added in manufacturing performed better than previously expected. Business investment and private consumption, however, remained weak.
Their Joint Economic Forecast is entitled “Aufschwung mit Strukturproblemen – Finanzpolitik auf Abwegen” (“Recovery with Structural Problems – Fiscal Policy Going Astray”). In the report, the institutes highlight the ongoing pressures facing the German economy. These include high energy prices and structural problems affecting Germany as an industrial location. In their assessment, the declining working-age population is also limiting the economy’s growth potential.
ArGeZ considers the recovery not yet firmly established
In its latest analysis, ArGeZ also points to the structural pressures facing the supplier industry. The association interprets the improved assessment of the current business situation as an indication that the economic recovery is increasingly reaching companies. At the same time, it sees the decline in business expectations as a sign that the recovery is not yet firmly established.
According to ArGeZ, the key factors in the coming months will be whether order levels improve on a sustained basis and to what extent structural pressures affecting Germany as an industrial location influence further economic development.
