3/9/2023
Markets & Industries
News
Short Term Commodity Outlook March 2023: Aluminum and Zinc
The market in the metals industry is constantly on the move - and so are commodity prices. IKB Deutsche Industriebank publishes a monthly report that focuses on the inventory and prices of aluminium and zinc. The most important developments in March 2023 are highlighted in the current report.
Development of aluminium prices since 2017 in US dollar per tonne.The supply situation now looks better again due to the build-up on the SHFE. The number of trading contracts fell by almost 30 per cent. Prices for primary and recycled aluminium moved sideways with a slight downward trend.
Trend: For the primary aluminium price we see a movement of plusminus 500 US dollars around the value of 2,300 US dollars per tonne by the end of the second quarter, aluminium alloy prices are on average around 300 US dollars per tonne lower.
Trend: For the primary aluminium price we see a movement of plusminus 500 US dollars around the value of 2,300 US dollars per tonne by the end of the second quarter, aluminium alloy prices are on average around 300 US dollars per tonne lower.
Development of zinc inventories since 2017 in thousand tonnes.Zinc developments and forecasts
Zinc mine production for the full year 2022 was 2.5 per cent lower than the previous year, due to production declines in China, Australia, Peru and Canada. Refined zinc production was down 4.1 per cent, mainly due to a decline in European production as a result of the energy price increase. Chinese refined zinc production was also down.
Zinc consumption decreased by 3.3 per cent in 2022. This was due in particular to a significant decline in Chinese demand. Easing of pandemic control measures in China will result in rising zinc consumption this year.
Development of zinc prices since 2017 in US dollar per tonne.Zinc stocks on the LME recovered somewhat in the course of February and stood at 33,350 tonnes at the end of the month, which is, however, only just under a quarter of the stocks of a year ago. On the SHFE, zinc stocks rose sharply in February and most recently stood at a good 12,000 tonnes. On the Comex, there are still 3,000 tonnes. The stocks are now sufficient for just under four days' consumption.
Trend: We see the zinc price at 3,100 US dollars per tonne by the end of the first half of the year in a range of plusminus 500 US dollars.
Trend: We see the zinc price at 3,100 US dollars per tonne by the end of the first half of the year in a range of plusminus 500 US dollars.
