Raw material flows: figures and trends
Another consequence of the uncertainty can be seen in the raw materials market. The availability of primary aluminium in Germany currently remains largely stable despite higher prices. In 2024, around 700,000 tonnes of aluminium were processed into cast products in Germany, while the production of primary aluminium was around 300,000 tonnes. Demand is largely covered by imports - primarily from Eastern Europe, Switzerland and the Netherlands.
The market for aluminium scrap is dynamic: in the worst case scenario, US companies could withdraw aluminium scrap from Europe at record prices in future, while the domestic industry is left empty-handed. "There are currently two competing opinions on this. Aluminium scrap prices have almost doubled in recent months," says Kappes. There are no acute shortages yet - but the risk is real.
With a view to ensuring a stable supply in the long term, the EU is working on greater diversification of its raw material sources. Strategic partnerships with traditional bauxite-producing countries such as Australia, Indonesia and Guinea are on the agenda. In Australia, for example, negotiations are currently underway on extensive raw material agreements in order to become less dependent on individual suppliers.
Appropriate EU response
How should Europe respond to the tariff poker? Kappes welcomes the EU's graduated and coordinated approach. "The EU's countermeasures are currently the right thing to do. They were weighed up and the measures were implemented live in two stages," he says. A ‘race of tariffs’ is not beneficial to anyone in the long term. His appeal to politicians is clear: "We must have functioning transatlantic relations. We cannot have a tariff war. We need the dismantling of tariffs in the long term."
Although German and European foundries are not currently at the epicentre of the trade conflict, the dynamics of the global markets and political uncertainty are increasing the pressure to adapt enormously. The direct effects of the US tariffs are still manageable - but uncertainty remains the most dangerous opponent. "The most positive thing is that we are not burdened with extreme percentages of direct business in the USA," summarises Kappes, "but the lack of predictability is a problem that affects everyone."
