The global expansion of renewable energies and e-mobility as well as the trend towards lightweight construction are providing impetus for aluminium demand. On the LME, inventories declined in the course of June and stood at 543,000 tonnes at the end of the month.
On the SHFE, the reduction in stocks continued: there, aluminium inventories are below 100,000 tonnes. Approximately 19,000 tonnes continue to be stored in COMEX warehouses. The number of trading contracts fell by around 36 per cent in May 2023. During June, the price of primary aluminium fell by 8 per cent compared to the beginning of the month.
Trend: For the primary aluminium price, we see a movement of plusminus 200 US dollars around the value of 2,200 US dollars per tonne by the end of the third quarter, with aluminium alloy prices averaging around 300 US dollars per tonne lower.
Zinc consumption increased by 1.6 per cent. Increases in consumption in China, the USA and India were offset by declines in Europe, Brazil and Turkey.
With an expected increase in consumption for the year as a whole, a supply deficit is also expected for 2023. Demand trends from the renewable energy, automotive and construction sectors ensure rising demand in the medium to long term.
Stocks on the LME fell again somewhat in the course of June 2023. At the end of the month, inventories were just below the previous year's level.
Zinc stocks on the SHFE increased in June and stood at a good 59,500 tonnes at the end of the month. Only 3,000 tonnes are still stored on the COMEX. Stocks on the exchange are at a historically low level despite a small build-up in inventories.
Trend: We see the zinc price at 2,500 US dollars per tonne in a range of plus or minus 500 US dollars until the end of the third quarter of 2023.
