- 06/12/2025
- Report
- Markets & Industries
- Melting and raw materials
Short Term Commodity Outlook in June 2025: Aluminum and Zinc
The metal industry market is constantly in motion – and so are commodity prices. IKB Deutsche Industriebank regularly publishes a report focusing on aluminum and zinc inventories and prices. The latest developments are highlighted in the current June 2025 report.
Written by Sina Lutter & Dennis Rheinsberg
Aluminium developments and forecasts
Global primary aluminum production rose by 1.5 percent year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, reaching 24.1 million tons. This increase was primarily driven by China, which expanded its output by 2.7 percent.
Aluminum inventories on exchanges declined significantly in May 2025. At the LME, stocks dropped by 10 percent to just over 372,000 tons by the end of the month. Following a sharp increase in May 2024 due to the ban on Russian-origin material, inventories have been steadily decreasing.
The decline was even more pronounced on the SHFE: stocks dropped nearly 30 percent in May, following a 25 percent reduction in April. Inventories now stand at around 124,000 tons. COMEX warehouses held approximately 13,000 tons at the end of May. U.S. trade policy continues to create uncertainty in the storage market.
Prices for both primary and recycled aluminum remained relatively stable on average in May. However, the primary aluminum price showed considerable intra-month volatility.
Trend: We expect the primary aluminum price to fluctuate by approximately plus or minus 300 US dollars around a level of 2,300 US dollars per ton by the end of Q3 2025. The price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain about 300 US dollars per ton below that level.
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Zinc developments and forecasts
Global zinc mine production is expected to rise by 4.3 percent in 2025 to reach 12.4 million tons. Key growth regions include Australia, China, Mexico, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In contrast, a significant decline is forecast for the United States.
Refined zinc production is projected to increase by 1.8 percent to 13.7 million tons in 2025. In China, following a 3.4 percent drop in 2024, output is expected to rise by 3.8 percent. Strong growth is also anticipated in Norway, while declines are forecast in Italy, Japan, and South Korea.
Global zinc consumption is set to grow by 1.0 percent to 13.6 million tons. After last year’s decline, Chinese demand is expected to recover slightly by 0.9 percent.
After a sharp increase in mid-April, zinc inventories began to decline. At the end of May, LME stocks stood at just under 140,000 tons – 100,000 tons lower than the previous year. SHFE stocks have also been falling for several weeks and amounted to 42,000 tons at the end of May. COMEX zinc stocks remained unchanged at 3,000 tons.
Trend: By the end of Q3 2025, we expect the zinc price to fluctuate around 2,600 US dollars per ton within a range of plus or minus 500 US dollars.
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