Commodity price information for the forth quarter of 2024: Aluminium & Zinc

The market in the metal industry is constantly evolving – and so are commodity prices. The IKB Deutsche Industriebank releases a quarterly report focusing on the stocks and prices of aluminum and zinc. The most significant developments in the forth quarter of 2024 are highlighted in the current report.

Graph aluminuim price — Aluminium Inventories

Aluminium developments and forecasts

By the end of October 2024, global primary aluminium production was 2.8 per cent higher than in the same period of the previous year. In China, primary aluminium output rose by nearly 4 per cent, while production in the rest of Asia increased by 3.3 per cent year-on-year.

Aluminium stock levels on the LME declined by almost 6 per cent in November, with inventories at the end of the month standing at 696,000 tonnes. Stocks on the SHFE also shrank during the month, finishing November 17 per cent lower than at the end of October. However, SHFE inventories remain double the levels recorded at the same time last year. On the Comex, aluminium stocks totaled approximately 30,000 tonnes at the end of November, while LME stocks of recycled aluminium were 1,600 tonnes. The decline in inventories has slightly tightened the supply situation.

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Primary aluminium prices stagnated in November, showing a slight downward trend. Prices for recycled aluminium remained relatively stable throughout the month, with an average increase of 1 per cent. Meanwhile, the number of trading contracts decreased significantly, falling by nearly 20 per cent in November.

Trend: We anticipate primary aluminium prices will move by 300 US dollars plus or minus around the 2,600 US dollars per tonne mark by the end of Q1 2025. The price for aluminium alloy is expected to remain roughly 400 US dollars per tonne below this level.

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Zinc developments and forecasts

Global zinc mine production is set to decline further in 2024, with an expected reduction of 1.4 per cent following a 2.1 per cent decrease in 2023. However, a recovery of 6.6 per cent is projected for 2025. Zinc mine production in China remains weak, while production in the rest of the world is forecast to increase by 8.9 per cent, driven largely by Australia, Mexico, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. European production has declined significantly this year but is expected to recover in 2025.

Refined zinc production is forecast to drop by 1.8 per cent in 2024 due to limited concentrate availability. China, in particular, is expected to see lower output this year. Zinc consumption, however, is projected to rise slightly by 1.8 per cent, resulting in a minor demand surplus.

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In November 2024, LME zinc inventories increased by an average of 12 per cent, with a net rise of approximately 20,000 tonnes from the start of the month. At the SHFE, zinc stocks ended November at 77,000 tonnes, representing a 1.5 per cent decline compared to the previous month.

Trend: We anticipate zinc prices to hover around 3,000 US dollars per tonne within a range of plus or minus 500 US dollars by the end of Q1 2025.

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